After reading Declan Hill's absorbing book The Fix last week, I've become a bit cynical about international soccer. For those of you who haven't read it, and you should, Hill provides a boatload of evidence, albeit some of it circumstantial, that Ghana fixed two matches at the World Cup in 2006. As a follower of U.S. soccer, my first reaction was shock: Why would the Black Stars, fan favorites and media darlings after beating the United States and advancing from the group of death, possibly fix a match?
According to Hill, there is a formula for match fixing at the highest level. First, find a team with players who have a history of fixing, that way they will not simply reject the idea out of hand. Ghana has a lot of fixing going on at the youth level, and players start to expect it as they progress in their international careers. Second, find a person the players trust to arrange everything and get access for the gamblers. A former youth coach for Ghana did that from an adjacent hotel in 2006. Third, find a game the players believe they will lose anyway, such as Ghana against Brazil in the knockout stages, and have the players make sure the game is lost by at least two goals. Ghana lost to Brazil 3-0, and two of the goals would have been stopped by a bad MLS team [check it out on YouTube and see for yourself].
If it did happen in Germany, and even if you don't believe Hill about Ghana dumping games, there was certainly something odd about the comments Steven Appiah made in the book about accepting money to win a game, will it happen in South Africa? I would not say it will definitely happen, but fixers will have greater access than they did in Germany, and there will be games where teams will expect to lose and may feel that a payday for that loss wouldn't hurt.
Now, I'm not saying it will happen, but a few games that meet Hill's criteria for the group stage:
- Honduras vs. Spain: The Hondurans are happy to be in it, but are they happy enough to forego a payday for a game against the favorites that they are 99% likely to lose anyway?
- North Korea vs. Brazil: Not sure how you bribe a Communist, but North Korea is not exactly known for transparency and a lack of corruption, although they may fear what would happen if they were caught. Then again, they could lose by eight goals and nobody would suspect a thing.
-Ghana vs. Germany: Hey, they may have done it last time with many of the same players, didn't really get caught, and this match could be meaningless in determining whether or not they advance. No, it seems too perfect for a fix. Or does it?
Any other games we should keep an eye on for the fix?
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